Coronavirus numbers: Over the weekend, I took the number of “community cases” in the US (22 on 2-29-20) and calculated the virus spread based on it doubling every 3 days. Mind you, we have more cases than what are being tracked.
By March 30, we would have 22,528 cases in the US. At a 1% case fatality rate, that would mean 225 dead.
By April 30, if the virus continued to spread, we would have 23,068,672 infected in the US with 230,686 deaths at 1% CSF.
This is the power of exponential growth. And mind you, my numbers are already behind – I had calculated 88 confirmed cases for March 6. We are at 159 confirmed as of today. Some estimates put the death rate at over 3%.
So these are conservative numbers, and why the media is freaking out so much about this, and why the government is basically lying to us and trying to keep everyone calm.
There’s not much we can do – the US will never stand for the type of draconian quarantine measures done in China or even Italy – no matter who was president people would freak out about a dictatorship.
Try to keep yourself healthy, be kinder to people, drop the grudges you have against friends and others, call up your grandma, and take vitamin C and D.
Just be mentally prepared. Hopefully it won’t be that bad.